My commentary: This is one of the best analyses I have seen to date. #2 and/or #3 are my projections. Here's what I think about Ed Pentin's list of possibilities.
1 - Not likely. Cat out of the bag.
2 - #2 is my first projection of what will happen. Maintain celibacy as the norm but expand dispensation exceptions to Amazon region.
3 - #3 is the second most likely possibility, but if this did happen for other world bishops to consider, it would happen as the next step or concurrent with #2 above.
4 - Francis won't abolish celibacy, but it is more correct for Pentin to say that Francis will 'continue the practice of his predecessors' beginning with Pius XII to dispense married men to the Latin rite priesthood. Francis would be expanding what his predecessors have done to the Amazon region and even other areas.
5 - Possible but not likely.
Excerpt (from Ed Pentin)
"1. The first could be that the post-synodal apostolic exhortation indeed contains no reference to viri probati, and so the document presents no danger to the mandatory celibacy rule."
"2. The second possibility is that the document firmly reasserts the Church’s discipline and so appears to adhere to orthodoxy, but allows an exception for the Amazon synod proposal."
"3.A third scenario is that the document contains no reference to viri probati and the celibacy rule would appear to have survived intact. But in reality, rather than being completely shelved, the matter would either be transferred to the new constitution for the Roman Curia and, in turn, bishops’ conferences."
"4. A fourth hypothesis is that the Pope says the exhortation must be read in light of the final document, allowing him to make no reference himself to the issue of viri probati and so at least avoid the accusation that he, himself, caused the abolition of priestly celibacy."
"5.A fifth possibility is that no reference is made to viri probati and a change to the priestly celibacy rule is postponed. It would then be dealt with either in a “study commission” on the matter, or in light of the next Synod of Bishops which will probably be on synodality."
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